Some Thoughts

1. As I write this (on the road in Virginia), it appears Obama will lose to Clinton in New Hampshire. That's too bad, though I think the media set Barack up to lose. And, as I said before, the Clinton machine is daunting. The pundit class was foolish for dismissing it so easily (wishful thinking much?). "There will be blood . . ."

2. Mitt Romney is in deep you-know-what. He has been running as the perfect "Reagan Republican": a defense conservative, a social conservative, a fiscal conservative. In Iowa, he lost to Huckabee as a so-con; tonight, he lost to McCain as a def-con. Very likely, he'll lose again to Huckabee in S. Carolina. What's left, then? There's no way he can revamp himself as penny-pincher numero uno. Plus, that's not exactly what GOP voters are looking for right now (later, Rudy).

3. Many folks -- in the grassroots and in the media-political establishment -- have been hammering home the "fact" that these early primaries will thin the field. It appears, however, that they've done the exact opposite. Forget the margins and percentages: on the Democratic side in particular, this thing is wide open, and getting wider. Look at the delegate count: Obama has 18, Clinton 17, Edwards 14. That's very competitive. The GOP is mixed-up as well: Romney with 23, Huckabee with 17, McCain with 7, Thompson with 6. (Those numbers don't figure in everything that happened tonight.) This campaign is just getting started . . .

No comments: