The Fredheads Are Coming

His regular campaign e-reports are bubbly enough:

Fred's South Carolina surge is working!Two new polls by Zogby and Rasmussen, conducted just this week, show support for Fred growing. Thousands of internal calls by the campaign show Fred's strength increasing.It's Day 10 of Fred's South Carolina bus tour, and Fred is on fire!

Still, he's only at 16%, neck and neck with Romney but well behind McCain and Huckabee, who are tied with 24% each. And Romney has apparently abandoned efforts in S.C., which might bode well for Huckabee. With only a few days left, I'm not sure if Fred can manage it, though an upset would be awesome. I supported Thompson from the get-go; his dismal showing thus far has been disappointing, though I can't deny my affection for his "Quiet Cal" style. Just so refreshing compared to the zeal and statist rah-rah flooding from both sides of the aisle. Now if only he could just crack a smile . . .

Some Thoughts

1. As I write this (on the road in Virginia), it appears Obama will lose to Clinton in New Hampshire. That's too bad, though I think the media set Barack up to lose. And, as I said before, the Clinton machine is daunting. The pundit class was foolish for dismissing it so easily (wishful thinking much?). "There will be blood . . ."

2. Mitt Romney is in deep you-know-what. He has been running as the perfect "Reagan Republican": a defense conservative, a social conservative, a fiscal conservative. In Iowa, he lost to Huckabee as a so-con; tonight, he lost to McCain as a def-con. Very likely, he'll lose again to Huckabee in S. Carolina. What's left, then? There's no way he can revamp himself as penny-pincher numero uno. Plus, that's not exactly what GOP voters are looking for right now (later, Rudy).

3. Many folks -- in the grassroots and in the media-political establishment -- have been hammering home the "fact" that these early primaries will thin the field. It appears, however, that they've done the exact opposite. Forget the margins and percentages: on the Democratic side in particular, this thing is wide open, and getting wider. Look at the delegate count: Obama has 18, Clinton 17, Edwards 14. That's very competitive. The GOP is mixed-up as well: Romney with 23, Huckabee with 17, McCain with 7, Thompson with 6. (Those numbers don't figure in everything that happened tonight.) This campaign is just getting started . . .

You Spin Me Right 'Round Baby

Mitt Romney, a dominant favorite in New Hampshire just weeks ago, said Sunday that a "close second" to Arizona Sen. John McCain would be a significant feat on Tuesday [...]

In the Politico interview, Romney dismissed talk of staff tension and made it unmistakably clear that he will simply turn attention to Michigan and elsewhere if he falls short here Tuesday.

Romney said a close second-place finish would be impressive considering the attention McCain has paid the state over the past eight years.

--via Politico

More than one person has attempted to locate the source of my pretty serious animosity towards Romney. They've all pointed to the obvious: Romney has proven his managerial chops in business and (to a lesser extent) in government, he's not a total neocon, he's a moderate who's playing right in order to win the GOP nod. I don't really disagree with any of those points, and I'll add that Mitt appears to have a kind heart and a clear mind and an admirable sense of patriotism.

But, ultimately, the man is a bamboozler of the first order. He perpetually has a finger to the wind. He's a husk of a candidate, driven by instincts more appropriate for private enterprise than public service. I doubt his ability to heal the wounds of the Clinton-Bush era, to restore our civil liberties, to end institutionalized torture, to move forward a unifying immigration program.

Oh, and he wants to double the size of Guantanamo. Awesome.

ABC Debates

ABC, as in, Anybody But Clinton. Can we all agree that last night's Democratic performance wasn't every-man-for-himself, but rather a concerted effort by Richardson, Edwards, and Obama to effectively undermine Hillary's shot at the nomination? She complained about the "pile on" strategy once before, and I didn't really buy it.

Now, however, the charge seems legitimate. Nobody's looking to befriend Hillary. Despite Obama's newly acquired status as frontrunner, she remains the person to beat. That's telling. If she can't squeeze a win out of N.H. (increasingly doubtful), she'll be in fairly mortal danger. Even if the party base is still willing to lend an ear, the most visible power players are aligning against her. That includes Richardson, a man twice appointed by her husband to prominent positions inside the executive branch. Ouch.

On the GOP side, there were no winners. I think Romney failed to take a much needed stand. There's no way he triumphs in New Hampshire now. There's still Michigan, but even that's looking increasingly precarious. Wouldn't savor being on his team at the moment.

Ron Paul played the black sheep/crazy uncle (yawn). He's finished. I'll be surprised if he polls over 10% in New Hampshire. McCain held his ground but didn't do anything to impress; Thompson and Giuliani were both so-so.

Huckabee made a few cute quips, and probably distinguished himself the most. For his efforts, he'll enjoy a small bounce in the Granite State, and large one in Michigan.

Not a very exciting night, except for Hillary's near meltdown. Almost a Dean moment -- almost.
Well, with the coming and going of that zero-gains debate, I think all the pieces are in place. Barring something major, something unexpected, N.H. will pan out thusly . . .

DEMOCRATS
1. Obama (by 5 or more)
2. Clinton

3. Edwards (trailing, a lot)

REPUBLICANS
1. McCain (again, 3 - 5)
2. Romney (solid second)
3. Distant third, will only matter if it's Huckabee, and even then not so much