Assessing the 2008 Hopefuls: Part I

In this continuing segment, I will assess the strengths and weaknesses of some of those likely to be 2008 presidential candidates. I'll also let you know what I personally think of each candidate from my perspective as a left-leaning moderate voter.

John McCain

The rundown: Since losing the 2000 race for the Republican nomination, in what many view as a bitter and dirty campaign, Arizona Senator John McCain has risen in the ranks to become one of the most powerful members of Congress. He is known in Washington and the media for being a strong conservative who is nonetheless willing to compromise with the other party. Along with Russ Feingold, he introduced campaign finance reform legislation, angering some conservatives. He was also part of the "Gang of 14," a group of 7 Democratic and 7 Republican senators who struck a deal on the filibustering of Bush appointees. Hawkish on Iraq and the war on terror, he has been critical of the administration's handling of the invasion but believes more troops are currently needed to stabilize Baghdad. On social issues such as abortion, McCain is solidly conservative.

Chances with Republican voters: 8/10. Two years ago, McCain's chances to win over the religious base of the Republican electorate appeared slim. In 2000, McCain delivered a blistering speech in which he famously called Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell "agents of intolerance" who distorted his record because he didn't "pander to them." Though this won him respect among moderates who wouldn't otherwise support him but were uncomfortable with Falwell and Robertson's brand of faith, the Senator has since reconciled with Falwell. He has also been emphasizing his pro-life, pro-family credentials. While there are undoubtedly Republicans who find McCain too much of a rogue and too critical of the GOP to support him, he appears at this point to be the frontrunner for the nomination.

Chances with the general electorate: 7/10. McCain consistantly does well in hypothetical horse race polls, especially when all voters are surveyed. In the post 9/11 world, he is viewed as serious about terrorism and strong on defense. And while many of his colleagues have been hurt by their support for the increasingly unpopular Iraq war, McCain has managed to maintain an image of both skepticism and strength. Voters appreciate his criticism of the handling of the war and it appears they are weighing this more heavily than his continued calls for more troops. It's possible, though, that the Senator's hawkishness may come back to haunt him, especially if the Baker commission's much anticipated report finds that a withdrawal is the best policy. The 2006 midterms hurt McCain's chances as a down-the-line conservative, as that election seemed to be a victory for moderation and restraint. Nonetheless, after 8 years of the Bush administration, many voters will support the man who is seen as honest and competent, traits McCain has worked hard to portray.

Would I support him?: Very Unlikely. In my mind, the most attractive thing about John McCain was his willingness to say exactly what was on his mind (remember the "straight-talk express?") despite the political unpopularity of it. As a Republican, lambasting the powerful religious right was a move of great bravery. He was right and I believe he still knows that he was. In his quest to win support for the 2008 primaries, he has run to the right, embracing all that he was once skeptical of. Furthermore, I believe the media depiction of McCain as an independent-minded conservative is lazy and misleading journalism. Saying that more troops should have been sent into Iraq from the beginning is by no means outside the establishment; it's popular opinion. If nothing else, McCain would probably run a much more competent administration than his predecessor. But he can no longer guarantee that it would be an honest one.

Iraq endgame proposals

Lawrence Kolb, a fellow at The Center for American Progress(CAP), a liberal think tank run by John Podesta revisits their plan for strategic redeployment. (PDF)

I suppose we should make a list of Iraq proposals.

Kolb's proposal for CAP.

McGovern's withdrawal proposal from Harpers.

Biden's proposal of shared power. (Washington Post op-ed; text of speech in front of the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia.)

Murtha's resolution.

The Project for a New American Century (PNAC) wants more troops. (One of the latest Weekly Standard articles expressing just that can be viewed by clicking here.)

John McCain supports plans to raise troop levels and prepare to stay for many years.

Feingold tried to propose a withdrawal by the end of this year--which of course was rebuked by Congress. I imagine we will be hearing more from him now that he is in the majority party.

UPDATE: Here is Tom Hayden's story about the US exploring a ceasefire by negotiating with insurgency leaders. And while it is not exactly a plan, the declassified portions of the National Intelligence Estimate are also interesting to read.

If anyone sees any other proposals let me know, and I will keep adding them.

Kuttner on the Economy

Robert Kuttner, an excellent writer, writes about economic populism in his column from today's Boston Globe. His sentiment is not unlike the arguments I have been making in the election postings.

He writes:

"On Election Day, ballot initiatives to raise the minimum wage passed overwhelmingly in all six states where the activist group ACORN and the labor movement made them a priority. These included the bellwether states of Missouri, Montana, and Ohio, where the wage initiatives contributed to a surge in turnout and helped progressive Democrats win narrow Senate victories. Since only about 7 percent of workers are helped directly by a higher minimum wage, the vote was widely seen as a symbolic expression of distress by the broad, working middle class seeking a change in economic priorities.

...

The group Trade Watch reported that nearly every Democrat who picked off a Republican-held seat campaigned as a critic of trade deals like NAFTA that are less about exporting goods and more about making it easier for American business to export jobs

...

As for Time Magazine's umpteenth story on a new centrism, a few newly elected Democrats are indeed more centrist on divisive social issues -- but all ran as economic populists. And the cure for economic insecurity is not in a new center, but in a progressive politics far more robust than we've seen in decades -- one that challenges the bipartisan corporate dominance of key economic questions, including the rules of trade."

Election 2006: What does it mean? (Part II)

This is part 2 of a five part look at the 2006 midterm elections and what it means for the Democratic Party. Read part 1 by clicking here.

The Battle for Power
Competing wings of The Democratic Party are battling over what this election means.

(Image credits: progressivedemocrats.org, dlc.org, bluedog.org)


When the GOP fell victim to the Great Blue Wave of 2006, some liberals seemed convinced that now that the Democrats had won big, the struggle for power was decided, at least until the 08 election comes closer.

Wrong.

The 2006 midterm has greatly changed where American power is held in Washington. And Democrats, organizations and individuals alike, know that there prominence will largely be decided on how the spin they results of this election to show a mandate for what they believe in -- be it economic populism, centrist policies, leaving Iraq or ending corruption.

Some say this election was a clear victory for conservative Democrats, such as the Blue Dogs, and New Democrats; others say it was the a victory for the more liberal wing of the party, such as the Progressive Democrats of America, the Netroots and Moveon.org.

While it is a bit of an oversimplification, there has been two main narratives to speak of in regards to this issue.

1) This election is a victory for moderates.

Advocates of this position point to the fact that many of the new Democrats headed to Congress are not very left-wing.

This was especially notable in the Senate.

Some examples: Harold Ford a pro-life, immigration hard-liner, conservative Democrat nearly wins a seat in the South. Bob Casey, a social conservative, beats Santorum for a victory in Pennsylvania; Jim Webb, a former Republican who worked for Reagan, beat George Allen in Virginia; and the crew-cut sporting Tester, won by representing the image of a conservative populist that likes to be photographed in a tractor.

Al From*, founder of the DLC, wrote: "But give Democrats credit. Apart from a foolish summer fling with Ned Lamont and a late Laugh-In cameo from John Kerry, Democrats did just about everything right and ran their best campaign in a decade. Field marshals Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer ignored the virtual industry of self-help nonsense that has paralyzed Democrats' chattering classes and went back to a simple, proven formula: From the suburbs to the heartland, elections are won in the center."

The Bull Moose blog, also an advocate for the conservative DLC, said the victory was as much a condemnation of the left as it was the right:

"The Moose celebrates the rise of the middle.

Across the board, the election has been correctly interpreted as the revenge of the center. The immoderate moderates smote the elephants because they have displayed incompetent incompetence and acted as dividers and not uniters. After the red-state blue-state divide, this year the voters were in a furious state.

Both parties are on probation with the electorate."

*(The DLC is notoriously pro-war, which may be why he called the election a victory of the "Vital Center" and not a public vote against staying in Iraq. In fact, he didn't mention Iraq as a factor in the election, which is as curious as it is ridiculous. One of the co-founders of the DLC, Will Marshall, was one of many co-signers of the now infamous PNAC letters urging unilateral policies, using the military to further US hegemony and preemptive war.)

2) This election is a victory for progressives.

Those who argue that this is a victory for progressives aren't buying the above claims.

Nick Burt and Joel Bleifus of In These Times, counter: "Don’t buy all the crap coming from GOP talking-point memos or the blather from mainstream pundits. The midterm elections do not signal a move to the center. Yes, a few conservative Democrats were elected, but the big gainers were progressives. In particular, the Congressional Progressive Caucus is on the rise."

John Nichols of The Nation made a similar point: "The largest ideological caucus in the new House Democratic majority will be the Congressional Progressive Caucus, with a membership that includes New York's Charles Rangel, Michigan's John Conyers, Massachusetts' Barney Frank and at least half the incoming chairs of House standing committees. "

And what may be more persuasive is the fact that conservatives are leaning on the idea that the public wants conservative Democrats to protect us from the crazy lefties. Fox News has been singing that tune since the election. And Newt Gingrich suggests in The Wall Street Journal, that conditions in Congress are such that Bush needn't even negotiate with Pelosi, Obama, and other more liberal Democrats, but instead only engage with bipartisan talks with the Blue Dogs.



He writes: "A conservative populist grassroots strategy would almost certainly make daily interactions with liberal leaders more confrontational as they found themselves nominally chairing committees but losing votes on the floor and having their initiatives rejected by a conservative grassroots coalition. With a conservative populist grassroots strategy it is the 44 Blue Dog Democrats who would find themselves cross-pressured."

A win for moderation -- but not moderates.

My humble take on this election is that this is a victory for moderation, but not for moderates. Progressives are more responsible for this victory than conservative Democrats, but a progressive Congress will not serve to make this country a left-wing government.

After six years of Bush, eight years of Clinton ( a DLC Democrat) and 12 years of Republican leadership before that, our country has radically shifted its policies to the right.

The media is deregulated heavily, big-business has more clout than ever; welfare has been cut; bankruptcy laws have been cut; social services have been cut; wages are stagnant despite economic growth; the richest Americans are getting richer while the rest of the country lags behind; the middle-class has suffered; unions have been marginalized; civil rights have been trampled on; dissenters patriotism is questioned; the world hates us more than ever' the military budget has soared; the minimum wage has been idle despite the rise in inflation; gay marriage has been used as a political tool for the far right; global warming has been ignored; science is marginalized in classrooms; the executive branch has unprecedented sweeping powers; our government has spied on our phone calls, and e-mails; peace activists have been spied on; journalists have been paid off here and overseas; and the Wolfowitz Doctrine (often called the Bush Doctrine) has become our foreign policy.

A progressive Congress could not implement radical leftist policies even if it wanted to do such a thing. What they can do, however, if they are strong and refuse to concede too much, is to fix some of these terrible problems by pursuing progressive legislation. The rights takeover of Washington was perpetuated by conservative Democrats, and if the DLC types were to have their way, they would keep progressives from bringing us back to a point of moderation by dismantling some of these horrific conservative policies. But the damage is far too bad to think we can triangulate our way back to moderation. We need a progressive Congress to bring us back to the moderation -- and then we can worry about triangulating.

My conclusion -- that this is a victory for progressives insomuch that are best suited to moderate our government from the iron grip that the far right has had on it. And that this is why the country has voted for progressive reform is based on two main points. 1) That progressives galvanized the anti-war sentiment which was the main factor in the Democratic victories on election day and 2) that many of the so-called conservative Democrats -- such as Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana -- are actually economic populists, far more liberal than the perception dictates

Progressives, the public and Iraq

In recent years, while so-called moderate Democrats were voting for the War in Iraq, the Patriot Act (and in some cases, even abhorrent Military Commissions Act), and constantly beating the drum for prolonging the war, many progressives of this country were pointing out the flawed evidence used by Bush and co., the impending difficulty of post-war Iraq, the failure of the media to scrutinize the situation fairly and the inherently dangerous precedent of invading countries who never attacked us.

While Washington insiders, including some Democrats, often scoffed at these types, labeling them as "fringe lefties," who "blame America first."

As reality caught up to the American people, however, (The leaked NIE, The Downing Street Memo, the increasing bloodshed, the extended tours for soldiers, the growing discontent from the military, books by Ricks, Woodward and so on) Democrats realized that the only way to win was to run on Iraq.

For some time it was only true blue progressives, such as Russ Feingold, who were not flinching in their opposition to the war.

Then came Jack Murtha. His military credentials and his relative conservative viewpoints helped him to legitimize unambiguous support for ending the war. Then came the shocking primary in early August in which Ned Lamont did something that historically never happens -- beat an incumbent Senator in a primary. These two Democrats really changed the direction of the 2006 campaign. Polls showed Iraq was the number one issues for voters, and Murtha and Lamont helped to framed the debate.


Conservative Democrats (who are often mislabeled as moderates) could not have won this election without the anti-war left. The reason is simple: They were not with the public on Iraq. The public opposes this war and regrets waging it. And their distaste for Iraq policies are not merely a condemnation of Bush and Rumsfeld, but a condemnation of the policies they implemented. Democrats who support(ed) these policies would be wise to understand that.

Progressives and populism

It is true that some of the new Democrats in congress are conservative on some issues especially on immigration and abortion.

But on economic issues the bulk of them, including Brown, Webb, Casey and Tester, are actually quite liberal on economic issues. Consider what Webb told NPR the day after Allen conceded the election: "I decided to run because of my concern...with the economic breakdown that's happened in this country along class lines."

You heard that right: class lines.

"There are huge income inequalities...that we haven't seen since the 1880s,” he said. "And wages and salaries...are at an all-time low as a percentage of wealth."

And economic issues were very important to voters in 2006, as Nichols notes: “As idiosyncratic as he is, Webb is not an anomaly. He's part of a broader trend that has been obscured by the fast-congealing conventional wisdom that the election results were driven chiefly by the ongoing disaster in Iraq. If you drill down a little into those results, it's clear that Iraq and Republican scandal can't account for all the Democratic victory. Consider the Democrats' success at the state level. The party picked up six governors, nine legislative chambers and more than 300 state legislative seats, none of which can plausibly be ascribed to discontent over Iraq."

That some candidates ran somewhat conservatively in conservative states does not underscore how the success of progressives around the country. As Tad Daley noted: “The three most progressive major U.S. Senate candidates in the country each won going away. On a day of record turnouts nationwide, Sherrod Brown garnered 56% of the vote in Ohio, Amy Klobuchar secured 58% in Minnesota, and Bernie Sanders (actually not a Democrat but a socialist!) pulled a full 65% in Vermont.

None of these three candidates apologized for their unabashedly progressive principles. None of them pandered to people who voted Republican in the last election to convince them to come over to the other side. Instead, all of them fired up the Democratic base, put forth big uncompromising liberal ideas, and inspired thousands of citizens who otherwise might not have cast a ballot to show up on Tuesday at the polls.

Coming soon
Part 3: Howard Dean v. Rahm Emanuel: The logic of the 50-state strategy

A true American artist

Film director Robert Altman dead at 81

The American film world just got a little less interesting. Robert Altman, one of the most prolific and groundbreaking filmmakers of his generation, died today. He was like the BB King of movies - he didn't need the money or notoriety, but he still went out year after year and worked, inevitably churning out a movie that, bad or good, was bound to be fascinating.

His body of work includes M*A*S*H, McCabe and Mrs. Miller, The Long Goodbye, Nashville, 3 Women, Popeye, The Player, Short Cuts, Gosford Park, and A Prarie Home Companion. He defined independent filmmaking, never giving an inch in terms of full artistic creativity. He was also a rebel, an outspoken activist, and a hard-ass. Rest in peace, Robert Altman.

Palestine and private land ownership

The Times had a must read in yesterday's paper. Kudos to them for following this story and having the will to run it.

"Within prominent settlements that Israel has said it plans to keep in any final border agreement, the data show, for example, that some 86.4 percent of Maale Adumim, a large Jerusalem suburb, is private; and 35.1 percent of Ariel is."

A Way out of Iraq

In an earlier post, Pat notes how far everyone is running from Iraq, including those who have been inclined to support it with vigor.

From Pat’s post:

“So what should be done? The worst part about this is that no one knows, and there is no right answer. Every road seems to lead to US embarrassment [sic], more Iraqi and coalition deaths, and chaos in the region.”

While there are indeed no easy answers, I would urge everyone to examine this proposal in Harper’s, written by George McGovern and William R. Polk.

A snippet:

"Withdrawal is not only a political imperative but a strategic requirement. As many retired American military officers now admit, Iraq has become, since the invasion, the primary recruiting and training ground for terrorists. The longer American troops remain in Iraq, the more recruits will flood the ranks of those who oppose America not only in Iraq but elsewhere.

Withdrawal will not be without financial costs, which are unavoidable and will have to be paid sooner or later. But the decision to withdraw at least does not call for additional expenditures. On the contrary, it will effect massive savings."

(Photo Credit: civilians.info/iraq)

The Draft

Rep. Rangel wants to reinstate the draft.

"Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., said Sunday he sees his idea as a way to deter politicians from launching wars and to bolster U.S. troop levels insufficient to cover potential future action in Iran, North Korea and Iraq.

'There's no question in my mind that this president and this administration would never have invaded Iraq, especially on the flimsy evidence that was presented to the Congress, if indeed we had a draft and members of Congress and the administration thought that their kids from their communities would be placed in harm's way,' Rangel said."

Beacon correspondent Phil Primeau wrote a piece about reinstating the draft recently.

Hey, where's everybody going?

When Henry Kissinger says, "I don't believe [military victory in Iraq] is possible," when Tony Blair agrees with an interviewer that the intervention has been a "disaster" and when the hawkish New Republic tells its readers that it goes without saying that they regret supporting the war, then it starts to become clear that the war is unwinnable.

So what should be done? The worst part about this is that no one knows, and there is no right answer. Every road seems to lead to US embarassment, more Iraqi and coalition deaths, and chaos in the region. I like Joe Biden's idea, but it's not really being taken very seriously. I guess we'll just have to wait to see what the Baker Commission says.

Election 2006: What does it mean? (Part I)

As the above Time Magazine cover indicates, some members of the media are portraying the latest election as a victory of moderates. There claim is not absurd (part II of this series will examine this election as a rejection of radicalism, and a victory for more moderate policies). But the way the election is being spun by many fails to accurately represent how big of a victory the last election was for progressives, and marginalizes their role in changing this country.

This Time cover gives the impression that Democrats and Republicans are now on equal footing. It implies that the appropriate legislative agenda would not be substantial progressive reforms but more triangulation, DLC style.

But so-called "moderate" Democrats, in many cases, enabled this war and the Bush agenda in general; in that respect this election was a condemnation of those, even Democrats, who were complicit in the failures of the last six years, especially on Iraq.

Bagnewsnotes proposes a couple of other possible covers that may have been more appropriate.





And here is Time's cover after the GOP won big in 94.



Notice a difference?


This is the first of several posts which will take a look at how politicians, the media and the public are interpreting the results of the election and the changes in leadership and policies that will follow.

Coming soon:
Part 2: Whose victory? What this election means for moderation.
Part 3:Howard Dean v. Rahm Emanuel: The logic of the 50-state strategy
Part 4: The Woman in Charge: Pelosi's role
Part 5: Crashing the Gate or stuck at the kids table? The role of the netroots in the 2006 election and beyond.